My name is Dr Issy Bacher, and I am the originator of the cycle analysis systems of CycleTrends.
The history of the development of CycleTrends goes back to the 1980’s.
I began to study the stock market in my 40’s and became obsessed with finding the key to beat the stock market and make a living from it.
I must have read over 50 books on the stock market and none of them helped me trade successfully.
And then, finally, one day, after all this frustration, I found a book by a famous Wall Street investment guru by the name of Joseph Granville…
I was browsing a second hand book store in downtown Johannesburg, when one of the books on the upper shelf caught my eye….
The title? A Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit.
I bought the book and rushed home to begin reading it. And it completely blew me away. Granville had found proof that the stock market’s movements are governed by cycles. But even better, not only did he prove that beating the market is possible if you have the right knowledge, he revealed that stock market cycles were all about numbers and could be calculated.
His book gave me the answers that I’d been looking for! I realized I’d found the most crucial Key to the Stock Market!
And it completely changed my life!
My personal fortunes changed so radically that I even flew to the USA to meet Joe Granville, personally. I even brought him out to speak at investment conferences in South Africa.
Around the same time, I met a programmer who could create a software program based on cycles. And he helped create the CycleTrends charting and analysis software that has changed the lives of so many people, including mine! Through the CycleTrends system, I’ve taught people in South Africa, the UK and Australia to trade the stock markets and the Forex markets for profit.
Using this system in 2005, I was able to forecast that the gold price would rise from a low of 500 dollars to 1000 dollars. From there I decided to share my knowledge and teach people how to use the stock market cycles to trade and invest. I’m never without my laptop – or with the software I helped create, even when sailing around the Greek Isles.
The success of the software can be gauged by the fact that, in February 2012, MetaStock®, then a wholly-owned company of Thomson Reuters, approached Cycle Trends to provide an add-on using our cycle indicators.
The Theory Behind CycleTrends
The theory behind CycleTrends is that all financial markets move in cycles.
CycleTrends is programmed to find genuine cycles that persist and have repeated themselves in the past. Because they have persisted in the past logically they will persist in the future and can therefore be used for forecasting. It does this with outstanding results. The function of the cycles is to give buy and sell signals through the pointing out of peaks, lows, turning points and trends.
Now CycleTrends is firmly established software with a large and loyal user base. With top notch support and listening to our users, we continue to grow and become better.
What are Cycles?
A regular cycle is the regular occurrence of an event at specified times and of a specified size. An example of such a cycle is the rotation of the earth around the sun on a regular 365.25-day basis i.e. at -23.5 degree latitude (the Southern Hemisphere) the sun will always be directly overhead (no shadow) at 12h00 noon on the 21st of December. Another regular cycle is the 24-hour rotation of the earth around its own axis.
Mathematically speaking a regular cycle will have a constant size (amplitude) and the time-interval from low to low and from high to high (period) will always be the same. In between highs and lows, the variation of the size with time is described by a sine or cosine (very smooth) curve.
In economic time series, such as the price movement of a share with time, one can hardly hope for such regular cycles. If the cycles were indeed so regular, everybody would have been able to spot them and there would have been no markets for these instruments. Here the movement will be much more erratic i.e. both the amplitude and the period will vary with time.
The purpose of cyclical indicators, such as used in CycleTrends, is to find these irregular or erratic cycles in the history of a financial instrument and to project them forward in time with a sufficient measure of certainty to be useable for profitable trading or investment.
History of Cycle Analysis
Probably the first well-documented use of cycles appeared in the Bible when Joseph, while in jail in Egypt, figured out that the Nile River has a 14-year cycle of floods and droughts. This made him the second most powerful man in the world of his time.
When primitive societies started to change from hunting and gathering to agriculture, around 10 millennia ago, the seasons had to be studied to determine the ideal time for planting. Stonehenge probably served as an early attempt at such a venture, but many such sites existed in the ancient world.
The next big impetus for cycles came after the Industrial Revolution when it was realised that economic prosperity is not a smooth process but moves in cycles. A General Leonard P Ayres expressed it very well when he said:
“Business cycles are as old as the industrial era. Their prosperities have created thousands of fortunes and their depressions have made millions of workers hungry and desperate. They have overturned governments, fomented revolutions, and caused wars. They are our most serious political problem.”
The origin of the theory of business cycles may be traced back to a paper by a Swiss historian, JCL de Sismondi, in 1819. After that many economists, such as Juglar, Kitchin, Kondratieff and Jevons became famous for finding specific cycles in business activity.
In 1801, the celebrated astronomer Sir William Herschel, in a paper read before the Royal Society, drew attention to an apparent relationship between sunspot activity and the price of wheat. When sunspots were high, wheat grew abundantly and vice-versa. This proved to be one of the most successful forecasts of the 19th century.
In 1940 ER Dewey set up the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburg. Since then this foundation became the leading body of cycle studies in the world. They have identified cycles in thousands of events ranging from geese populations to silt deposits in lakes to long term cycles in the Dow Jones Index and the prices of gold and wheat.